Recent Poll Shows Who is Favoured to Win Czech Elections

If the elections to the Czech Chamber of Deputies took place in May, the coalition of Pirates and STAN (Mayors and Independents) would win with 26 percent of the vote ahead of the Spolu coalition (ODS, TOP 09, KDU-ČSL) with 21.5 percent.

According to the election model of the Kantar CZ agency, the ANO movement of current Prime Minister Andrej Babiš would end up in a third-place with 20 percent.

Together with the Freedom and Direct Democracy (SPD) with ten percent and the Communist Party of Bohemia and Moravia (KSČM) with 5.5 percent, the Oath movement, led by the former head of the Organized Crime Unit, Robert Šlachta, would have enough vote to enter the Chamber of Deputies. Compared to the April survey, it gained an additional 2.5 percentage points.

“The ANO movement and SPD movements mainly collect voters among non-voters and partly also among Pirates,” said Kantar analyst Ondřej Ryboň about the shift.

As in the April survey, the governing Czech Social Democratic Party (ČSSD) would end up outside the lower house with three percent and only after the grouping of Tricolour, Party of Free Citizens, and the Freeholder Party of the Czech Republic, which, according to the model, would win 4 percent of the vote.

According to the model, the coalition of Pirates and Mayors would gain one percentage point less than in April, as would ANO and the Social Democrats. On the contrary, support did not change for the Spolu coalition made up of ODS, KDU-ČSL, and TOP 09. The SPD lost 2-percentage points of support in favor of the Oath, “which might appear more credible, likable, and with a more comprehensive anti-corruption program to the voters,” the analyst said.

The Communists improved by half a percentage point, as did the Tricolor movement.

According to its chairman Vojtěch Filip, who intends to resign from the party function at the party congress, the KSČM managed to stop the decline. Ryboň pointed out that parties such as the KSČM and KDU-ČSL had won very few new voters since the last parliamentary elections in contrast to the Pirates, Mayors, and the Oath. According to the analyst, part of the ANO voters diverted to these three groups and the SPD. ČSSD voters most often switched to Pirates, Mayors, and ANO.

The survey was conducted between May 10 and May 28, and 919 voters were polled in the election model. The authors of the survey point out that the statistical error is 1.1 to 3 percentage points.