The Czech opposition ANO party of former Prime Minister Andrej Babiš would win the Czech general election with 33.5% of the vote if elections were held now, according to a new opinion poll.

The current Kantar election model for Czech Television also shows that the Pirates (Greens/EFA), STAN and TOP 09 (EPP) would still make it into the Czech Chamber of Deputies. At the same time, the Christian democrats (KDU-ČSL, EPP) would not pass the 5% threshold.

By a wide margin, the currently governing ODS (ECR) would get 12%, with its support falling by 5% since the spring of 2023. The far-right party of Freedom and Direct Democracy (ID) would finish third with 9.5% of the vote.

The current Czech government was formed in 2021, consisting of five parties – ODS, KDU-ČSL, TOP 09, Pirates and STAN. All the parties are significantly lagging behind the populist ANO party.

The most noticeable outflow is from ODS towards ANO or Freedom and Direct Democracy.

“The most frequently mentioned reasons for the shift are incompetence, inconceptiveness, chaotic, failure to fulfil promises, but there are also economic reasons such as high inflation, falling real wages and related reasons such as inaction, poor communication,” the model’s authors said.

The model was presented after the government announced austerity measures for the consolidation of public finances.

Meanwhile, satisfaction with the political situation in Czechia fell to 21% this September, according to a survey by Kantar CZ. In February and April 2023, about a third of the population was satisfied with the situation.