New Study Predicts 260,000 Ukrainian Refugees May Remain in Czechia

As many as 260,000 refugees from Ukraine could remain in the Czech Republic permanently within the next decade, according to a new study by Boston Consulting Group (BCG) and the Aspen Institute Central Europe.

If that estimate proves accurate, the total number of foreigners in the country could reach 1.36 million by 2035.

As of the end of March, figures from the Ministry of the Interior showed that 364,600 people were living in Czechia under temporary protection. Another 708,700 foreign nationals held various types of residence permits—bringing the total to around 1.07 million.

“We currently estimate that around 70% of Ukrainian refugees will remain in the Czech Republic after 2035,” the study’s authors wrote. However, they noted that much depends on how the war in Ukraine develops in the coming years.

The study highlights a generally positive effect on the Czech labor market, which has long suffered from worker shortages.

“The arrival of labor helped ease shortages in sectors like construction, manufacturing, and services, while also generating new consumer demand that supported parts of the economy,” the study notes.

But integration is not without challenges. The report flags several issues: language barriers, the limited recognition of qualifications, and increased pressure on the healthcare and social systems.

By the end of March, Czechia had registered 364,602 people with temporary protection. Additionally, 330,283 people held temporary residence, while 378,418 had permanent residency.

If current trends hold, the study predicts that the number of foreign residents could rise to 1.19 million by 2030 and reach 1.36 million by 2035. Of those, 260,000 would be Ukrainian refugees, many with children who would gradually enter the workforce.

“We expect that the number of foreigners in the Czech Republic will increase. We will need them. Even with that growth, our economy will still face labor shortages,” said Tomáš Wiedermann, BCG partner and one of the study’s co-authors.

Alongside those fleeing war, another 90,600 Ukrainians live in Czechia with temporary residence.

A further 111,700 Ukrainians have obtained permanent residency after meeting long-term stay requirements. The study estimates that the Ukrainian immigrant population could rise to around 237,000 by 2035.

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