Final Poll: Support Babiš ANO Party Drops but Opposition Short of Majority

Support for the ruling ANO party dropped ahead of an election on Oct. 8-9 but the main opposition groups were still short of a majority in parliament, a final survey ahead of the vote showed on Monday.

The poll by the Median agency for Mlada Fronta Dnes newspaper conducted between Sept. 23-29 showed Prime Minister Andrej Babis’s ANO at 25.2%, down from 27.0% in August.

Median was the third agency that recorded a drop in support for ANO in the past weeks. It however also showed the two main opposition blocs that have pledged to work together to oust ANO from power — the centre-right SPOLU (Together) and the liberal Pirates/Mayors — polling 40.3% between them, or 0.6% less than ANO when it is combined with two other parties that would win seats.

The Monday survey would put ANO in pole position to form a new cabinet but would it make it difficult to find a majority in parliament without breaking the mainstream opposition parties’ pledge not to work with Babis, or turning to anti-European and anti-NATO parties for support.

Babis has ruled since 2018 with the Social Democrats (CSSD) in a minority government that has been supported in parliament by the far-left Communists. In the Median survey, the Social Democrats polled at 5.6%, while the Communists polled below the 5% threshold for entering parliament.

The Median poll was conducted before revelations published by major news organisations on Sunday which included documents showing the billionaire businessman Babis had sent money through offshore structures to buy real estate in France in 2009, before he entered politics. The reports did not accuse Babis of illegal activity and he denied any wrongdoing.

Opposition parties have called on him to explain the source of funds used in the transactions. Monday is the last day when polls may be released, and other mainstream agencies said they planned no more publications.

Parties:

• ANO – centrist ruling party founded by billionaire Andrej Babis;
• ČSSD – Czech Social Democratic Party, centre-left, junior ruling party;
• PIRATES/STAN (Pirates/Mayors)- coalition of the liberal Pirate party and the centrist Mayors party (STAN);
• SPOLU (Together) – coalition of the rightist Civic Democratic Party (ODS), conservative TOP09 party and centrist Christian Democratic Union-Czechoslovak People’s Party (KDU-CSL);
• SPD – Freedom and Direct Democracy, anti-EU, far-right;
• KSČM – Communist Party, far-left, anti-NATO;
• PŘÍSAHA – centrist, anti-corruption party;
• TRIKOLORA – Tricolour Citizens’ Movement, eurosceptic;
• ZELENÍ – Green Party, environmentalist.